Midterm Oil Relief Fades Fast as Jet Fuel Prices Claw Back

Jet fuel prices dropped 7% last Wednesday as midterm results rolled in. By Monday, the Argus US Jet Fuel Index had clawed almost all of it back — landing less than 1% below where it sat on election day. John Gradek, an aviation risk management expert at McGill University, told Forbes there's 'no permanent relief in sight,' pointing to geopolitical tensions that 'remain, notwithstanding the midterms.'

Energy analytics firm Wood Mackenzie expects diesel and jet fuel prices to stay roughly 30% above pre-war forecasts in 2027 — even in a scenario where the Iran war winds down. The firm shared that outlook with industry outlet Rigzone.

Gasoline gave drivers a small break too. The national average for a gallon of regular sat just under $4 on Monday, down about 16 cents over the week and below the '$4 psychological wall' for the first time since July. Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, told Forbes that's not an election gift: the summer driving season is over and colder, darker days mean Americans drive less, exactly as they do every year.

Traders who bet big on a post-midterm slump got a quick lesson. 'The Blue Wave created a one-day death spiral for oil,' wrote Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, calling the election-driven reaction 'a bad take.' Sparta Commodities senior oil analyst June Goh told Reuters markets are still weighing how the results shape Trump's next move on Iran, and predicted 'more volatility ahead.' Oil slipped Monday after unconfirmed reports that Iran had eased its demands around Hormuz, according to Bloomberg.

The White House isn't offering a clean script. Vice President JD Vance pinned the Republican blowout on the Iran war, writing on X that 'any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.' On Sunday, President Donald Trump said more strikes were 'highly unlikely' if talks produce a strong deal curtailing Iran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and told CBS' 60 Minutes he was 'not looking to' escalate. Hours later, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations were not 'on the verge of a breakthrough' and dismissed some Iranian demands as 'outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic.'

De Haan blames the wild swings on the administration's silence about its plan, its goals and how it intends to get there — leaving analysts to trade headlines instead. He also warned the calm at the pump is fragile: 'If Trump makes a lot of mistakes moving forward in Iran, it's not impossible that we could set new records.'