Mark Moss: Bitcoin halving is now a sideshow, not a catalyst

The Bitcoin halving may not be the catalyst it used to be. Market Disruptors founder Mark Moss told Cointelegraph's Ciaran Lyons that new BTC supply is now so tiny compared with demand that slashing it in half "doesn't really move the needle." His message to traders: stop circling halving dates on the calendar.

Moss argues the famous four-year cycle was never a pure supply story. In his view, global liquidity, the ISM business cycle and the presidential cycle have always packed more punch than the scheduled issuance cut. He unpacked the idea on the TRADESECRETS show.

The halving is hardwired into Bitcoin. Roughly every four years, the reward miners earn for processing blocks gets sliced in half, slowing how fast new coins enter circulation. That shrinking flow of fresh supply has long been cited as fuel for post-halving rallies.

Moss says that playbook is stale. With new issuance now dwarfed by demand, he argues the halving is a sideshow rather than a trigger. The comments push back on the supply-first framing that has dominated halving hype for years.

For traders, Moss's takeaway is to watch macro forces — liquidity conditions, business-cycle signals and election-year dynamics — instead of treating the halving as an automatic price switch. His full breakdown is available on TRADESECRETS.