Kremlin Shrugs Off Midterm Shake-Up, Bets Trump Stays the Course on Ukraine

The Kremlin isn't sweating the Democrats. Asked whether Republican losses in the U.S. midterm elections could derail Washington's push to broker a Russia-Ukraine settlement, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he hopes President Donald Trump will keep at it. He pointed to a fresh round of trilateral talks between Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. representatives landing Tuesday and Wednesday in Abu Dhabi.

Peskov also tipped his hat to first lady Melania Trump, praising her humanitarian work. A limited ceasefire around the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, brokered with her help last week, let aid trucks in and some residents out. As for whether the new Congress might challenge Trump's posture toward Moscow, Peskov waved it off as a U.S. internal matter.

Plenty is already in motion. Last month Trump struck a diesel fuel import deal with Russia, a sharp reversal of years of U.S. pressure that rattled Kyiv and European allies. This week the arrangement wobbled after federal and state officials warned that handling shipments could carry legal consequences, and two U.S.-bound tankers changed course. The Kremlin downplayed the setback, insisting deliveries will continue. Trump also paused sweeping new sanctions on Russia by executive order, a move lawmakers from both parties slammed as a gift to Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine, meanwhile, reported that Starshield, the military-grade Starlink service run by Elon Musk's SpaceX, was briefly throttled. Trump denied involvement, but the slowdown hit the backbone of Ukraine's drone operations and battlefield comms, and was widely read as Washington leaning on Kyiv. Ukraine's other big ask is Patriot interceptors: the administration approved a proposed $2.1 billion sale on Oct. 30, though U.S. stockpiles are drained by the Iran war and Washington is restocking its own shelves first.

Trump met with Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev at a White House ceremony marking the humanitarian truce, skipping Ukrainian officials who were also there, and hinted at a grand European security deal. Russian reactions split along predictable lines. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's Security Council, predicted Trump will have less appetite to press Ukraine with a new Congress seated. Deputy speaker Konstantin Kosachev said Kyiv should expect a more resolute Trump, not a more pliable one, now that he faces no more ballots.

Not everyone in Moscow is relaxed. Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter turned analyst, argued the Russian leader squandered his window for a deal and now faces a less cooperative Washington. Atlantic Council Europe Center senior director Jorn Fleck cautioned that Democrats will struggle to meaningfully limit Trump's foreign policy even with strong majorities, while Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told the AP that unpredictability is the safe bet. Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for his part, said he thinks his odds of extra U.S. help just went up.