Kobeissi Letter: A 5-10% Drop Would Still Count as a Healthy Correction

Don't call it a crash just yet. The Kobeissi Letter says technical corrections are simply part of how markets work, and even a 5-10% drop from where indexes sit now would still land in healthy territory, according to the account's post on X.

That framing matters for anyone watching every red candle like it's a verdict. A pullback of that size is a normal reset, not a signal that something has broken — at least by the account's read.

Then comes the historical pitch. The Kobeissi Letter points out that midterm election years have historically been exceptional buying opportunities for stocks, a claim it backs with a long-run number rather than a vibe.

The stat: since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned an average of 17.2% in the year following a midterm election, according to the Kobeissi Letter. That's an average across more than seven decades of cycles, not a guarantee for this one.

Put together, the message is a two-parter — short-term pain may still have room to run without being alarming, and the year after voters head to the polls has been kind to equities over the long haul. Whether this cycle repeats the pattern is the open question.

The Kobeissi Letter's take is commentary on market history, not a forecast. The averages describe what already happened; the next twelve months still have to be earned.