Kalshi traders cool on Anthropic IPO, odds slip below 60%

Kalshi traders are cooling hard on an Anthropic public listing. The prediction market now shows users putting less than a 60% chance on the AI company going public this year, according to Cointelegraph. That's a sharp slide from the nearly 90% odds they were pricing on the eve of the midterms.

In other words, the crowd that was once near-certain about an Anthropic IPO has turned into a crowd that's merely hopeful. Nothing about the company's plans has been confirmed here — this is a read on sentiment, not a filing. Kalshi users are simply voting with their money on whether it happens within the year.

Why it matters: Anthropic is one of the loudest names in the AI boom, and its path to public markets is a bellwether for how investors are pricing the sector's next phase. When the odds on a market like Kalshi swing that fast on a single name, it says more about traders' nerves than about the company's books.

The drop of roughly 30 percentage points is a big move for a prediction market, where shifts usually come in increments. Watch the number — if it keeps bleeding, the market is telling you the window is narrowing.