Herzog to hand out first shot at Israel's government as both camps fall short

Israeli President Isaac Herzog says he will name a candidate to form a government on Sunday, and the math is messy. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot collected endorsements from 67 of the Knesset's 120 members during consultations that wrapped Thursday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu got 46.

That gap comes with an asterisk. Eisenkot's majority only exists because of the Arab-led parties, which won a record 19 seats in the October 27 election — 11 for the Joint List and eight for the United Arab List (Ra'am). Eisenkot has ruled out seating them in his government.

Netanyahu's own trouble is internal. His endorsements landed seven short of his bloc's 53 seats after United Torah Judaism, a longtime ally, withheld support over the coalition's failure to exempt ultra-Orthodox Israelis from military service. Shas, the other ultra-Orthodox party, backed Netanyahu on Wednesday.

So Eisenkot has options that don't require the Arab-led parties. Winning over United Torah Judaism and Shas would give him exactly 61 seats, and United Torah Judaism has hinted its support is available for the right price. He could also run a minority government now and pick up a majority later by conceding on conscription. Israeli law lets him become prime minister with fewer than 61 seats if his government survives a confidence vote — which the Arab-led parties could help deliver.

Ra'am says it will join an Eisenkot-led government; the Joint List won't, but offered outside backing to stop Netanyahu's return. Eisenkot has refused to bring either in unless they meet conditions including recognising Hamas as a "terrorist organisation." Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas has backed disarming Hamas but won't use the label. Joint List's Ahmad Tibi told the Associated Press that rejecting the partnership would prove Israel is "an ethnocracy, not an absolute democracy for all citizens."

The clock is brutal. Herzog's nominee gets 28 days to build a coalition, extendable by 14. Fail, and a second nominee gets 28 days; fail again, and a Knesset majority can back a third candidate with 14 days. After that, the Knesset dissolves and a new election is called within 90 days — leaving Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister. Analyst Nehru Jamhour told Al Jazeera that drawn-out impasse is the likeliest outcome, and Netanyahu's preferred one, with a repeat vote potentially weakening his rivals and depressing turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.