Herzog hands Eisenkot the mandate, but his 67 backers can't yet reach 61 seats

Israel's president handed Gadi Eisenkot the mandate to build a government on Saturday, and the Yashar chairman is due at the President's Residence on Sunday at 5 p.m. to collect it. The recommendation tally looked like a rout: 67 MKs named Eisenkot, 46 backed Benjamin Netanyahu, and seven sat it out. Looks, though, are doing heavy lifting here.

The problem is arithmetic and ideology. Of Eisenkot's 67, 19 come from Arab parties, and the Zionist change bloc commands just 48 seats. To clear the 61-MK majority, he needs United Torah Judaism's seven and Shas's six, according to jpost.com. That's where the wheels wobble: Shas chairman Arye Deri recommended Netanyahu, and haredi sources told the outlet it's hard to picture Shas even sitting down to negotiate with Eisenkot.

Avigdor Liberman is playing the opposite game. He gave Eisenkot his full backing, is making no demands for a rotation deal, and dropped his objection in principle to working with the haredi parties, floating compromises on conscription based on his own 2018 framework. Haredi sources say the mutual veto between Liberman and the haredi camp has been lifted on both sides, with contacts already underway. Familiarity, they suggest, breeds more trust in Liberman than in Eisenkot.

The escape hatch isn't cooperating either. Eisenkot could try a minority government propped up by Arab-party abstentions, but Liberman has ruled that out flatly, refusing support for anything resting on Ra'am or the Joint List. Haredi sources expect the haredi parties, and Yisrael Beytenu, to vote against such a government, per jpost.com. If Liberman holds the line, abstentions alone won't swear anyone in.

On Friday, Eisenkot laid out four principles for joining him: recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, acceptance of the Declaration of Independence's values, mandatory military, national or civilian service, and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization with a commitment to dismantling its capabilities. Conscription law remains the unsolved puzzle, with haredi parties wanting yeshiva students' status legislated and partners like Naftali Bennett demanding real enlistment. Bennett has stayed publicly silent on any haredi compromise, and his party says that silence is not consent.

The change bloc isn't waiting. Once the Knesset is sworn in Tuesday, it plans to push to replace Speaker Amir Ohana, examine special committees, advance a state commission of inquiry into October 7, and repeal laws passed by Netanyahu's coalition. Liberman would prefer Yair Lapid for speaker; no candidate is settled. The ball, for now, sits in Eisenkot's court.