England and Wales free 650 more inmates in third early release wave

Roughly 650 prisoners walk out of jails in England and Wales on Tuesday, the third wave of the government's push to clear the overcrowding crisis. This batch covers sentences of up to three years and two months. They are going free after serving just a third of their time behind bars, instead of the halfway mark.

At least 1,350 offenders have already been released early since the scheme started on 1 October. Officials reckon at least 2,500 will be out by the end of the year, finishing two-thirds of their sentences on licence in the community. Tuesday's stage keeps the pattern rolling — each batch serving longer terms, building up to June next year, when those handed more than 12 years start leaving.

The cohort spans affray, which carries a maximum of three years, plus burglary and fraud. Some violent offenders are in the mix too: those convicted of wounding, grievous bodily harm with intent or lower-end firearms charges. More than 70 offences are carved out of the scheme entirely, including manslaughter, rape, sexual and grooming offences, and anyone on a life term.

The numbers inside tell the story so far. Monday's weekly figures put the jail population at 86,982, with room for 2,076 more if needed — about 500 more spare cells than on the eve of the programme in October. Refuge, which supports domestic abuse survivors, told the BBC last month that abusers were among those being freed.

Once out, offenders face electronic tags and monitoring conditions for the middle third of their sentence, with probation officers checking licence terms that can ban them from certain areas or contacting victims. Recalls are climbing: 12,338 offenders were sent back behind bars between April and June for breaching conditions, up 12% year on year, though down on the first quarter. About a fifth of those returns were for a fresh offence, and the government still hasn't published recall rates for the scheme itself.

Napo, the probation union, has balloted members on strike action over pay and conditions, with the result due Friday. The Ministry of Justice has offered a 5% rise; the union wanted 12% to claw back cuts dating to 2010. The department calls the offer fair, notes two other unions accepted it, and points to £700m going into probation to hire 1,300 officers and roll out AI tools. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has criticised the scheme, saying she was worried about dangerous people being let out before they had served their sentence or been rehabilitated. The Conservatives ran their own early release programme, freeing more than 10,000 prisoners between October 2023 and September 2024.