Dan Ives Calls Post-Midterm Tech Rout Overdone, Bets AI Spending Keeps Flowing

Tech investors woke up to a red screen on November 5, 2026, the morning after Democrats captured both the House and the Senate. The Nasdaq Composite slid as much as 5.5% intraday, with the S&P 500 off as much as 4.4% over the same stretch. Semiconductors took the worst of it, and Nvidia fell more than 8%, touching losses of up to 9%.

Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives isn't buying the gloom. The analyst argues the selloff is overdone because AI spending will keep flowing no matter who runs Congress. He's still calling for Big Tech and hyperscaler capital expenditure to clear $1 trillion in 2027.

That doesn't mean he's waving off the political risk. Ives has warned the results could slow data-center construction and AI infrastructure investment in the near term, and he flagged regulatory headaches brewing in states like Texas, a magnet for data-center buildouts. His estimate: 10% of the 800 to 1,000 AI-focused data centers planned in the US may never get built because of post-election uncertainty.

For chip investors, Ives sees more pain before any relief — a near-term downside of 10% to 12% for semiconductor stocks. His long-term AI thesis stays intact, but he isn't selling anyone a painless ride over the coming weeks. Instead, he's pointing to software and platform names as the post-election winners: Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Snowflake and CrowdStrike.

Ives isn't alone in reading the dip as a buying window. Analyst Tom Lee projects a potential 20% rally in tech stocks once the election shock fades. The whole thesis rests on that $1 trillion spending number — if Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet or Meta start trimming infrastructure budgets, the argument cracks fast.

The setup looks less like a blanket recovery and more like a rotation inside tech. Ives is bearish on semis near term while bullish on software and platforms, a split that tells you where he thinks the money goes next.