Crypto PACs hit 28 of 30 House races, burned $67.7M backing losers

Four crypto political action committees picked the projected winner in 28 of 30 House races and just one of four Senate races, after dropping $89.5 million on projected contests since Sept. 1. The scorecard compares PAC spending against race projections available as of 1:22 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. The spending figures come from independent expenditures and 24- and 48-hour reports filed with the Federal Election Commission by 1:13 p.m. ET that day — and filings covering Nov. 1-3 could still roll in.

Follow the money and the win rate looks thinner. Only $21.9 million of that $89.5 million, about 24.4%, was tied to candidates projected to win. Protect Progress batted a perfect nine for nine. Defend American Jobs went 16 for 17. Fairshake landed four of six. Digital Freedom Fund went zero for three.

Ohio's special Senate race swallowed almost the entire loss column. It accounted for $64.05 million — 94.7% of the $67.66 million spent on projected losing sides. Defend American Jobs and Digital Freedom Fund both put money behind Republican Jon Husted and against Democrat Sherrod Brown, who was projected to win.

Nebraska delivered another expensive miss. Defend American Jobs spent $13.48 million opposing independent Dan Osborn, while Republican Pete Ricketts was projected to take it. Digital Freedom Fund also lined up against Democrats James Talarico in Texas and Josh Turek in Iowa; both were projected winners.

Fairshake's biggest bet was on House incumbents who backed the Clarity Act in 2025 — roughly $1 million in October on each of six of them. Reps. Bryan Steil and Bill Huizenga were projected to fall to Democrats Mitchell Berman and Sean McCann. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill was projected to hold on by 1.8 percentage points.

This tally spans four crypto PACs and a wider set of projected races than TokenPost's earlier look at 12 competitive contests, which folded in crypto and AI interests. The two counts track different groups and different races, so their numbers aren't measuring the same thing.