COP31 drops the 1.5C goal and bets on a 35% electric world by 2035

The UN climate summit in Antalya has become the first to concede that the 1.5 degree Celsius target set in Paris will not be met. In its place, Türkiye and Australia — this year's joint presidents — are pushing a voluntary pledge to run 35 per cent of the world on electricity by 2035.

Australian Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen told the opening session the meeting was gathering at a time of glacial collapse in Nepal, heat deaths in Europe and an intensifying El Niño. His words: climate change is not a forecast or a prediction, but the lived reality for billions of people.

Fossil fuels are the elephant in the room — not formally on the agenda. UN climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell told delegates this year's fossil fuel cost chaos had delivered a global shock wave, spreading inflation like a cancer, and pointed to the Iran war and the elections that followed as evidence of the fallout.

The 35 per cent goal looks modest on the numbers. The International Energy Agency puts electricity's current share at 23 per cent, with existing policies already forecast to carry it to 30 per cent by 2035. Türkiye, which is promoting the electrification drive, is Europe's largest coal power generator, with roughly 55 per cent of its electricity coming from coal and natural gas.

Australia has taken heat as a major fossil fuel exporter, especially from Pacific nations, over expanding coal mining and the extension of the North West Shelf gas project. Bowen struck an optimistic note, saying the world was heading for warming approaching 4 degrees before Paris, while projections now sit closer to 2.6 degrees.

The summit will focus on implementing measures already agreed rather than setting ambitious new targets, with money for poorer countries to adapt their energy systems and offset climate impacts high on the list. Methane cuts in the oil, gas and waste sectors are also in play. Economist Nicki Hutley, a Climate Council member attending in Antalya, said the electrification push is exactly what Australian households need, noting the country imports most of its refined fuel so overseas conflicts hit bowser prices fast. Her warning: electrification only delivers lower bills and real security if the world stops tying itself to volatile fossil fuel markets.