Canada keeps immigration at 380,000 and re-ups its 2% inflation vow

Canada is holding its immigration dial steady. The 2026-2028 plan keeps the annual permanent resident target at 380,000, a number that shapes the country's labour force, housing demand and long-run growth. Paired with a fresh monetary policy mandate, the message from Ottawa is continuity, not a pivot.

The renewed framework puts the Bank of Canada's price stability mission front and centre: a 2% inflation target, enforced inside a 1% to 3% control range. That's the same architecture the central bank has worked under, restated at a moment when inflation pressures are still doing the talking.

On energy, Canada's outlook got more expensive. Policymakers now expect West Texas Intermediate to average $87 a barrel in 2026 and $89 in 2027, a forecast that feeds straight into the inflation math the Bank watches.

Prediction markets are already chewing on it. Traders give a 25 basis point hike at the December rate announcement a 37.5% shot, while the odds of no change sit higher at 63.5%, according to Crypto Briefing. Stability still has the edge, but a hike is no longer a fringe bet.

Next up is the data. Inflation and employment prints will land before the December call, and public remarks from Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers could sharpen the picture. Oil prices and how Canada's major trading partners are faring round out the watchlist.

Bottom line: same immigration number, same inflation anchor, pricier oil. Canada is signalling it will sit still until the numbers force its hand, and the December rate announcement is where that patience gets tested.