Burnham's climate vows face the test as Rosebank and EV rules loom

Andy Burnham has two climate calls left to make this year, and his own MPs are watching both. Ministers meet this week to finalise the 2030 electric vehicle target, which the Guardian understands will be cut by about a quarter. And before the year is out, energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh must decide whether to wave through Rosebank, the giant oilfield that green-minded Labour MPs want killed.

The pattern is what's rattling them. Burnham has already watched Fahnbulleh approve the Jackdaw gasfield, and chancellor John Healey has trimmed a string of green schemes, heat pump subsidies included. Healey pulled more than £3bn out of the energy department to fund defence spending, with most of it coming from the £15bn warm homes plan for heat pumps, rooftop solar, batteries and insulation. Hydrogen and carbon capture funding took a £700m hit.

Experts say the boiler upgrade scheme cut is the sorest one. Britain already trails much of Europe on electrifying home heating, and Andrew Sissons of the research charity Nesta called the move a backward step. He warned the boiler scheme is the main lever for cutting emissions from homes and that gutting it sends a damaging signal to the heat pump industry. The UK now looks unlikely to hit its heat pump targets, and could even miss its emissions goal in the next carbon budget.

Campaigners found more to dislike in the budget, which let hyperscale datacentres build on-site fossil fuel power and left the windfall tax on energy companies alone. BP booked $8.5bn (£6.4bn) in profits for the three months to September, an 18-year high, while Shell doubled its profits to $10.8bn. Greenpeace's Ami McCarthy said the government's heart seems to be in the right place, but warned it risks sleepwalking into reversing the progress made so far.

Labour MPs are being blunter. Catherine Fookes said she believes Burnham is committed to the green transition and understands the crisis, then added that the ZEV mandate should stay and Rosebank should be rejected. Andrew Lewin said approving the oilfield would risk undermining the party's strong renewables record, and that it isn't worth it. One MP put it plainly: if every decision Burnham makes ends up damaging the climate, his intentions don't really matter.

Burnham's team push back hard. They argue the green cuts were first agreed under Keir Starmer's government, the Jackdaw and scheme decisions were driven by national security and the cost of living, and that stripping VAT from electricity bills will nudge consumers off gas. Ministers are also working on moving more levies off electricity bills and funding environmental schemes through taxation. Fahnbulleh's allies say she wants to block Rosebank, while those close to Healey want it through — and Burnham is reported to have sided with the chancellor, though No 10 insists the call is hers. On EVs, aides note the PM recused himself because of his wife's role at a charging company.