Bitcoin's post-midterm streak: 63% average gain, but CryptoQuant smells a catch

Bitcoin has a habit of ripping higher in the year after America votes. Since 2010, the 12 months following every US midterm election have delivered an average median return of 63% for BTC, according to CryptoQuant. The on-chain analytics firm flagged the pattern in a post on X.

The scorecard reads like a bull's diary. Bitcoin climbed 36.8% after the 2014 midterms, 45.8% after 2018, and 80.8% after 2022, with the most recent cycle delivering the biggest pop of the three.

CryptoQuant isn't handing the credit to voters just yet, though. The firm warns the streak may actually be Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle doing the heavy lifting, with the two calendars overlapping closely enough to muddy the cause. It also notes 2026 is shaping up differently.

That caveat matters. Midterms arrive every four years, halvings arrive roughly every four years, and both land near the same stretch of Bitcoin's timeline — which makes it tough to separate election-year optimism from the supply shock baked into the protocol.

So the headline number is striking, but the mechanism stays murky. For now, the midterm stat is a pattern CryptoQuant is tracking, not a proven trigger — and the firm's own warning suggests the next data point may not cooperate.