Bitcoin holds $77K on futures fuel while spot buyers and ETFs retreat

Bitcoin has scrambled back into its $77,000–$80,000 support band after sliding to $75,839 — the short-term holder cost basis — in the wake of the US mid-term elections. But the bounce has a hollow ring, according to Bitfinex's Nov. 4 report. Much of the buying beneath $77,000 is coming from perpetual futures positions, not spot investors, and Bitfinex warns those floors rarely hold.

The derivatives footprint is plain. Aggregate bitcoin futures open interest hit 701,548 BTC on Nov. 3, its highest since Sept. 22. Perpetual funding rates stayed near an annualised 11% over the past two weeks even as prices corrected, while spot buyers showed little aggression. Bitfinex reads that as a rebound leaning on leverage.

Meanwhile, holders keep heading for the exits. The short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio stayed below 1 for six straight trading sessions and hit 0.994 on Nov. 4 — the longest losing stretch since the eight days ending Aug. 17. Net realised losses across all holders widened on Nov. 4, hitting 24,600 BTC, up from 13,000 BTC on Nov. 2, the biggest since Aug. 7. According to Bitfinex, October buyers who paid between $77,000 and $84,000 sold whenever price approached their cost basis rather than defending it. Every recovery since Oct. 30 came from short covering, not fresh demand.

The coin mix is shifting inside the band. Supply last moved between $77,000 and $80,000 climbed to 1.28 million BTC by Nov. 4, up from 1.05 million BTC on Nov. 1, while the $81,000–$84,000 bucket shrank by 92,000 BTC, now at 1.12 million BTC. Only about 353,000 BTC was acquired between $75,000 and $77,000. Bitfinex says that thin cushion means a sustained break below the short-term holder cost basis could run into little support before the $70,000–$75,000 range.

Exchange-traded funds aren't helping. US spot bitcoin ETFs logged $1.16 billion in net outflows across three trading sessions from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, the heaviest since the end of June. That dragged 2026 cumulative flows slightly negative, with $60 million in net outflows. BlackRock's IBIT shed $405.3 million on Nov. 2 alone — its largest daily withdrawal since June 26 — though the fund still holds roughly $3.7 billion in net inflows for the year.

The next clue comes from whether that outflow streak breaks after the election. Bitfinex says a single day of inflows on Nov. 4 would prove little. Three consecutive days of inflows roughly matching the recent withdrawals would be the first real evidence that institutional demand has returned.