Bitcoin Braces for CPI With No Annual Inflation Number on Deck

October CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The twist: no annual inflation rate will be published, because the BLS did not collect October 2025 price data during the 43-day government shutdown. Traders are instead working with estimates that stretch from 3.6% to 4.0%.

Bitcoin is trying to hold above $74,000 after starting November near $81,195. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled $2.20 billion in net outflows since the month began, adding to the cautious mood. The last official data put September headline inflation at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, with core at 2.6%. For the monthly figures, markets expect headline CPI at 0.3%, down from 0.6% in September, while core CPI is forecast at 0.2% after 0.3%.

The reaction will hinge on how far inflation lands from those expectations. A headline reading above 0.3% could strengthen the case for another 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December, according to Coinpedia, with markets already pricing an 84% chance of one. That could put more pressure on Bitcoin. If core inflation comes in below forecast, traders could get relief, as lower inflation would ease pressure on the Fed and might bring buyers back into Bitcoin.

Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades sees the $72,000–$75,000 band as a key support zone, Coinpedia reports. Multiple major support levels cluster there, making it a possible spot for BTC to stop falling and form a higher low. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is testing the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $74,974, with next support around $72,040 near the 0.618 level. It's also trading near the Bull Market Support Band and its 200-day moving average.

Daan said this was the price range he had been waiting for. If Bitcoin has started a new bull market, after a rally that began near $58,000 and peaked near $87,000, holding this zone could help it form a higher low and continue its recovery. Losing the $72,000–$75,000 range could weaken the bullish outlook.