Trump's Iran playbook is down to three bad options

Trump is done pretending the Iran war didn't cost him. The president has conceded it hammered Republicans in the midterms, and now he's staring down a menu where every dish looks unappetizing: bomb again, cut a deal, or squeeze Iran until it rots.

Striking would mean going back to war — widely unpopular, gas prices stay high, and the military result probably wouldn't be any better than last time. Negotiating runs straight into the risk that Tehran, smelling weakness after Trump's political loss, refuses to budge or jack up its demands. The third path, which aides call 'strangle,' means holding the naval blockade and crippling sanctions while testing whether Iran wants a deal. That one could take months to show anything.

Vice President Vance threw a grenade into the room Wednesday morning, writing on X that the war is why the GOP lost. 'The reason we lost is the war,' he said, adding that the president himself said so and that any honest conversation about next steps has to start there. He also flagged the U.S. relationship with Israel as a serious liability for Republicans. Trump told reporters Vance's read was 'largely true' because the war pushed gas prices up — but insisted he'd do it all again: 'You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon.' Asked when he'd end it, Trump said, 'Whenever I wanted to.'

Behind closed doors, Vance has spent months leading the faction pushing Trump toward a deal. He privately accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of 'being wrong on everything' about Iran and warned the war could sink Republicans at the polls, sources told Axios. Most senior officials around Trump share that view — but Trump kept leaning toward resuming the fight. He even weighed striking before the election as Netanyahu pressed him, then held off. Against his top advisers' advice, he still endorsed Netanyahu in Israel's election last week.

The Pentagon isn't waiting around. U.S. officials say the military is finishing preparations for a possible return to major combat operations, including sending more assets to the region. Meanwhile, Qatari mediators are scrambling to lock down U.S. and Iranian support for a draft agreement that could head off a new round and revive direct talks within days, regional sources say. Before the vote, mediators asked White House officials what Trump would do if he lost; his advisers couldn't say either way.

Iran, for its part, is popping champagne. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei wrote on X that the Iranian nation handed Trump a battlefield loss in Hormuz and a 'political defeat in Washington.' Diplomats, Trump advisers and Middle East experts told Axios that gloating could backfire by making Trump more likely to restart the war. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group warned Tehran risks mistaking political weakness for military weakness. Others, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, want the blockade and sanctions to keep grinding. Either way, there's no clean ending here.