Treasury Rush: Nasdaq 100-to-Bond Ratio Sinks to Lowest Since July
Investors are piling into long-dated Treasuries, dragging the Nasdaq 100's ratio against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF down to 342.5 — its weakest since July 31. The ratio has slid 15.4% from its October 7 record and is headed for a fifth straight weekly drop, per @KobeissiLetter.
The trade everyone wants right now isn't a chipmaker — it's a bond fund. The ratio of the Nasdaq 100 to the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, has slid to 342.5, its lowest reading since July 31, according to @KobeissiLetter.
The move is no blip. Since the ratio's all-time high on October 7, it has dropped 15.4%, with $TLT climbing 7.1% while the Nasdaq 100 shed 10.2% over the same stretch. That split shows money rotating out of growth equities and into government debt.
Momentum is stacking up. The gauge is on track for its fifth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since the 2022 bear market. Comparable sharp drops showed up between February and April 2025, and again during the 2020 pandemic panic.
The motive behind the dash is straightforward: investors want a cushion against a selloff in AI names. After a long run higher for tech, long Treasuries are doing the job of portfolio insurance.
If the streak extends, the ratio could test levels last seen earlier this summer — a signal traders will read as nerves over the AI trade rather than calm.
TopicsNasdaq 100 · $TLT · iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF · @KobeissiLetter
Source: x.com
Written by Paparazzi with AI. Not financial advice.
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