Talarico Leads Paxton by 783,329 Votes as Texas Bitcoin Reserve Hangs in Balance

Talarico led Paxton 58.3% to 40.1% at 03:14 CET, a margin of 783,329 votes, with 41.3% of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News figures based on AP data. No winner has been called. Most Texas polls closed at 02:00 CET, with El Paso and Hudspeth counties on Mountain Time following an hour later, and county reporting arrives unevenly — so a lead this wide can still shrink.

The early numbers break hard for Talarico. Early in-person voting ran 60 to 39 in his favor. The Election Day ballots reported so far were even more lopsided, going 68 to 31.

The suburbs are doing the heavy lifting. Tarrant County, wrapped around Fort Worth, flipped from a Republican lean of 5.1 points in the 2024 presidential race to a Democratic lead of 21.0 points in this Senate contest. Collin County, north of Dallas, moved from a 11.1-point Republican edge to a 13.3-point Democratic one. Harris County, home to Houston, went for Democrats by 5.5 points two years ago and has no votes reported yet.

Those comparisons stack early ballots against a full presidential count, so the real swing will land smaller than it looks tonight. Even a sliver of it would be historic. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, and Republicans have held every statewide office for decades. Donald Trump carried the state by 13.7 points in 2024.

Prediction markets weren't waiting for county clerks. Traders priced Talarico at 97.5% at 03:14 CET on a market that has churned $19.0 million in volume, according to CryptoTicker. That's a read on expectation, not a forecast — and markets like this can overreact to early returns.

Why crypto watchers are glued to a Senate race: Texas was the first US state to buy Bitcoin for a state reserve, so the outcome carries weight far beyond one seat in Washington. The count rolls on, and nothing is official yet.