Prediction Markets Give Democrats 99% Odds of Flipping the House

Prediction markets swung sharply toward Democrats as polls closed Tuesday, per ct.com. Kalshi and Polymarket now put Democratic House control at 99% and the Senate at 98%. Earlier in the evening, the Blockchain Association's election dashboard showed Senate odds at 94% on Kalshi and 93% on Polymarket, up from 75% and 75.5% that morning, while House odds sat at 98% and 99%.

The raw seat count backs up the momentum. Democrats and allied independents have locked down 42 Senate seats against the Republicans' 31. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff won reelection in Georgia, beating Republican Rep. Mike Collins, and Sen. Mark Warner held Virginia against Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa, according to the Associated Press. Sens. Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Chris Coons of Delaware also won again — Markey voted against the 2025 GENIUS stablecoin bill, while Coons has ripped Trump's crypto ventures as "corruption."

The crypto industry's money is riding on a handful of races still in play. Ohio's Senate matchup between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown has pulled in roughly $63 million in crypto spending, about $56 million from Fairshake and $7 million from the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund — all aimed at boosting Husted or sinking Brown, a longtime crypto critic.

Elsewhere, Fairshake spent nearly $11 million backing Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, with its Defend American Jobs affiliate dropping about $13.5 million against independent Dan Osborn as of Nov. 3, according to FEC data compiled by Bankrolled. Texas pits Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico, both A-rated by Stand With Crypto. Wyoming's open seat, vacated by crypto champion Sen. Cynthia Lummis, has Republican Rep. Harriet Hageman facing Democrat James Byrd, while Maine's Susan Collins defends her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson, who Stand With Crypto rates as "very pro crypto."

The election could unstick the CLARITY Act, but Maylea Ma, deputy general counsel at 1inch, told ct.com she expects federal agencies — not Congress — to drive the next phase. She said the SEC, CFTC and Treasury are increasingly engaging with crypto projects, though that engagement doesn't deliver the stability the industry wanted from legislation. "The long-term goal, of course, remains a statute that cannot be reversed every time a government changes," Ma said.

Turnout is heavy. More than 57 million Americans had cast ballots as of Monday, with early voting running ahead of 2022 levels in several closely watched states, according to the AP. Cointelegraph is tracking live results from the Associated Press as the remaining races come in.