Europe's gas stores hit 13-year low as winter closes in, IEA warns

Europe is walking into winter with its gas tanks emptier than they've been in 13 years. Storage sites across the continent sat at roughly 75 percent full at the end of October, according to the International Energy Agency, undershooting the EU's 80 percent minimum and logging the weakest pre-winter position since 2013. The IEA flagged the shortfall on Tuesday and said market strain could drag into 2027.

The refill season got off to a bad start and never caught up. Europe came out of last winter's heating stretch already low, buyers held back hoping prices would slide, and by the time deliveries picked up in August, September and October the ground lost earlier was too deep. Gas injected over the season landed about 4 percent below the five-year average, the agency said.

Supplies got squeezed from the outside too. Damage to natural gas liquefaction plants in the Gulf during the US war on Iran, plus thinner transit through the Strait of Hormuz, made it harder for Europe to line up extra cargoes.

That leaves the continent leaning harder on liquefied natural gas to cover peak winter demand. The IEA said the thin buffer makes Europe especially exposed to a colder-than-normal winter, technical failures on gas networks, or any fresh supply disruption.

Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, is projecting it will have enough gas to get through — even though it missed its own storage target. German facilities averaged 61 percent full, below the legally mandated 70 percent for November 1 and under the EU-wide figure of nearly 75 percent, according to the AGSI tracking platform.

Lower reserves in Europe don't stay a European problem. The IEA's warning points to tighter competition for LNG cargoes worldwide, with pressure on international energy markets potentially running through 2027.