Election Day Is Here: 59 Million Votes Already In, Congress Hangs in the Balance

Polls are closing across the country, and the last ballots of the 2026 midterms are being cast. More than 59 million people already voted early, a staggering number that amounts to nearly half of all the ballots cast in the last midterm election. The talking is over. Now it's down to the count.

Democrats are riding a double-digit advantage among early voters, according to available early-voting data. That puts them in strong position to take the House, where they only need to flip three seats. The map has shifted their way noticeably over the past month, and the GOP's rare mid-decade redistricting play looks unlikely to hold the line.

The Senate is the real mystery. Democrats would need to flip four seats for control — a scenario that seemed unthinkable when this cycle began. North Carolina is the one seat the party is favored to pick up, but the rest of the board is either a coin flip or tilts Republican, and the toss-ups sit on GOP turf. In five of those states, Trump won by double digits in 2024.

That's why Trump has been camp-hopping through red states in the final stretch, trying to fire up his base. Republicans' top target is Michigan — if they snag it, Democratic hopes get a lot more complicated. Turnout is the whole ballgame: a big Republican showing on Election Day could limit Democrats to a single Senate pickup, while a weak one could trigger a wipeout of six or seven seats and hand Democrats the chamber.

Early returns start flowing at 6 p.m. ET from Kentucky and Indiana, and the night will roll on from there. One warning before you camp out on the couch: many races won't be called tonight. In close contests, states need time to count, and that could mean days — or weeks — before the final picture locks in.