Drone strikes sink ships off NATO shores as Black Sea war widens

Russia and Ukraine are turning the Black Sea into a shooting gallery, and NATO's eastern flank is standing in the middle of it. A Greek container ship was sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone last week. That came just days after another vessel was hit just outside Romanian waters on October 23 — three days after NATO pledged to send maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to beef up its Black Sea presence.

Analysts watching the footage have little doubt who is pulling the trigger. A naval drone visible in video of the latest strike looked like a Russian variant, according to shipping security firm Ambrey. Russia denies targeting Ukraine's neighbours with drones and insists European governments are the ones escalating by shipping military aid to Kyiv. Its defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters.

The numbers tell a brutal story. Ambrey senior analyst Tomas Alexa counted 317 merchant and other vessels hit in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October — more than four times the 74 struck in the previous six months. October flipped the scoreboard: Russia hit 38 ships versus five Ukrainian strikes, after Ukraine led the third quarter with 137 attacks to Russia's 92.

Almost all of the October targets were anchored near or sailing to and from a Romanian canal that Ukraine relies on for exports. One ship sat in Romanian territorial waters; the other eight were in Romania's or Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone. Bucharest has called the strikes on civilian ships systematic but won't pin individual attacks on Moscow without forensic evidence. Sofia hasn't blamed Russia either, though it says some attacks appear to benefit it.

Iulia Joja, who runs the Black Sea programme at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, says Moscow is probing how far it can go. 'This is about testing these red lines, with full awareness that we will do everything possible to take the most minimal measures,' she said, comparing it to past Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace. A NATO official called the actions a serious security threat and said the alliance's commitment to defending all members is 'ironclad', pointing to more than $40 billion pledged for counter-drone capabilities over the next five years.

The stakes are huge for Romania, which counts on the Black Sea for trade and for its Neptun Deep offshore gas project — set to make it the EU's largest gas producer next year. A naval drone approached Neptun Deep in August. Grain flows have been hammered: Russia shipped just 0.3 million metric tons through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in September, down from 4.74 million a year earlier, while Ukraine's port grain exports fell to 0.81 million tons from 2.1 million. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned last month that the world is fixated on diesel. 'In a month or two, everyone will start talking about an agricultural crisis,' he said. Turkey, which controls warship transit through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, is still waiting on Moscow and Kyiv to answer its narrow maritime ceasefire proposal — and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday there is growing international interest in a limited truce.