Democrat Sweep Odds Hit Record 91% as Polls Close, Stock Futures Slip

Market expectations for a Democratic sweep just hit a record 91%, according to @KobeissiLetter, as polling stations began closing across the United States. That's the highest reading the outlet says it has ever logged for a full Democratic takeover.

Traders didn't wait for final results to react. US stock market futures slid to a fresh low for the day, down nearly 1% since polls started closing, per the same post.

Put together, the two moves tell one story: markets are pricing in a near-certain political shift in Washington. Prediction-market odds and equity futures are moving in tandem, which is exactly how traders behave when they expect the ground to move under them.

The 91% figure is the headline number, but the direction matters as much as the level. It's a record high, meaning confidence in a sweep has never been stronger at this point in a vote count.

What happens next depends on the count. Polls are still closing state by state, and futures will keep trading through the night — so watch whether the 91% holds or wobbles as results land.

For anyone holding risk into the morning, the message from the tape is blunt: the market has already picked a side on the politics, and it's now deciding what that costs.