China floods the Gulf with diplomacy as Trump's Iran bind hands Xi an opening

China has launched a rapid-fire diplomatic push across the Gulf, just weeks before Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to share a stage. Xi hosted Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq in Beijing on Monday — the first visit by an Omani head of state since the two countries opened diplomatic ties nearly 50 years ago. Foreign minister Wang Yi squeezed in separate talks with Saudi Arabia's national security adviser, Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban, and Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran's national security council.

The timing is no accident. Trump is expected in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November for the Apec summit, where he and Xi will meet face to face. According to a Chinese readout, Xi used the Omani talks to warn that the Middle East must not become an arena for great power rivalry, saying Beijing wants to contribute wisdom and solutions to the region's security dilemma. Wang told his counterparts China would play a constructive role in pulling the region out of the pandemic's shadow — and told Iran's envoy that Beijing backs Tehran in safeguarding its sovereignty and security.

Beijing already has mediator receipts. When the US and Israel struck Iran jointly in February, China was credited with nudging Tehran toward ceasefire talks in Pakistan. It also brokered the 2023 Saudi-Iran detente, though its diplomatic footprint has thinned since. Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, told the Guardian that Beijing's regional influence is no longer what it used to be — but with China's swelling investment and trade in the region, it cannot be ignored either.

The real leverage is oil. China buys roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, and between April and June it slashed those imports by 30%, with June volumes cratering to a decade low. That squeeze helped spare the global economy a nasty inflation spike — some estimates put the relief at $30 or more off a barrel of Brent. Otherwise, Beijing has kept its hands largely off the peace-brokering file, partly because it doesn't see the conflict as its problem to fix.

There's an upside for Beijing in the wreckage too. Pew Research Center findings published in July found China viewed more favourably than the US across a majority of 36 countries surveyed. But the fighting carries risk: prolonged disruption to the strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for much of the world's oil and gas, threatens China's own economy by stoking inflation that dents demand for Chinese goods.

Tehran and Washington are locked in intense talks on a deal that could include reopening the strait, while Trump has repeatedly threatened fresh military action against Iran after Tuesday's US midterm elections — a prospect that would set off alarms in Beijing. Trump's hunger for a Middle East deal may hand Xi the opening he wants: a peacemaker role on the eve of their summit. China's foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Monday that special envoy Zhai Jun will head to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November.