S&P 500 Walks Into November, Historically Its Best Month of the Year

Wall Street is entering what history calls its friendliest month. The S&P 500 has averaged a 2.1% gain in November going back to 1980, making it the strongest month of the year, per a breakdown from @KobeissiLetter on X. Positive returns showed up 74% of the time over that stretch — the best hit rate any month can claim.

The longer view backs it up. Since 1964, November has delivered an average gain of 1.6%, with the index finishing green 69% of the time. The biggest November on record in that window was 2020, when the S&P 500 ripped 10.8% higher.

Midterm years have their own reputation. Since 1950, November in a midterm year has averaged a 2.7% gain, according to the same analysis, with a win rate of 78.9%. That's a notch above the already-strong all-years average.

The takeaway from the numbers is simple: the calendar tilts bullish from here. But averages are averages — they describe the past, not what the next four weeks will actually do.