Russian Satellite Stalks Ukrainian-Used Iceye Craft to 1km Apart in Orbit

A Russian military satellite shadowed a Ukrainian-used commercial satellite in low orbit this month, closing to within roughly a kilometre before settling onto the same path. Cosmos-2612 crept up on Iceye-X36 between October 15 and 18, a manoeuvre the US State Department called threatening and consistent with what it described as in-orbit military operations.

Iceye-X36 isn't a Russian asset or even a purely Ukrainian one. It's operated by Finnish company Iceye and carries Synthetic-aperture radar to feed imagery to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to France 24, analysts at French space surveillance firm Aldoria had eyes on Cosmos-2612 since its April 6 launch, when it went up alongside five sibling satellites. Norbert Pouzin, an orbital analyst at Aldoria, said it was obvious from the start this wasn't a classic deployment — the satellites began shifting orbit almost immediately to pursue Iceye craft.

The maths here is the story. Cosmos-2612 started out 400 to 500 kilometres from Iceye-X36. By October 15 it was inside five kilometres, kept closing on October 16 and 17, and ended up within a few hundred metres to a kilometre. Satellite imaging company Vantor published a photo on October 22 showing their orbits just 1.02 kilometres apart. Tracking data from KeepTrack later confirmed the two were running the same orbit — Cosmos-2612 was following.

No debris, no kinetic strike. The play wasn't a collision or a projectile, so what was it? Pouzin told France 24 the move could be a way of squeezing Ukraine, since Kyiv is the direct recipient of the radar data: if an operator knows a SAR satellite's observation schedule, it could briefly disrupt the mission and ripple out to ground or maritime operations.

What rattled Western commentators, Pouzin added, is that this kind of close approach on a commercial satellite in low orbit is new. Russia routinely launches military satellites into the same orbital planes as classified US military craft, but this target wasn't a government bird — and the two sides aren't friendly, nor are the satellites run by the same entity.

The manoeuvre also doubled as a flex. Pouzin said it showed real agility from the Russian operator, sharp knowledge of the space domain and a very high level of mastery in that kind of navigation.