Robinhood traders price Texas Senate: Talarico 69%, Paxton 33%

Ken Paxton is priced at 33%. James Talarico sits at 69%. That's the spread Robinhood's app put on the Texas Senate race in a post from its official X account.

The two numbers don't sum to 100, which is normal for these markets — the leftover usually reflects other candidates or outcomes traders are still pricing in.

Talarico, a Democrat, holds a commanding edge in the pricing. Paxton, the Republican, trails by more than half. If the market is right, that's a lopsided result in a state Republicans have owned for decades.

Robinhood has been pushing further into event and prediction markets, and political races have become one of the busiest corners of that business. A Texas Senate matchup is exactly the kind of high-profile contest that draws volume.

Odds are not votes. Markets move on news, money and momentum, and months out from an election they can swing hard in either direction.

For now, the board reads one way: Talarico way ahead, Paxton well behind.