Republicans Pour $14M Into Deep-Red Senate Seats as Midterms Close

Republicans are spending the final week of the midterms defending historically red Senate seats that have suddenly turned competitive, according to federal filings and sources. The Senate Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund spent $14 million across Kansas, South Carolina, Nebraska, and Mississippi in the campaign's penultimate week, a WIRED review found. The biggest move was in Kansas, where the fund abruptly dumped more than $5 million.

In Kansas, the headache started in early October, when GOP pollster Trafalgar Group found Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton one point ahead of incumbent GOP Sen. Roger Marshall. Marshall, a doctor, has faced negative stories about legal action against patients with unpaid bills and about how much time he spends in Florida. Some political operatives complain he hasn't taken the race seriously, sources say. Trump operatives tell Inner Loop they don't expect Democrats to win these Senate seats; the spending is mainly meant to boost incumbents with narrow leads.

In South Carolina, SLF spent roughly $5 million for incumbent Darline Graham, who has struggled to galvanize Trump's base despite the president's endorsement that powered her primary win. In Nebraska, the fund put nearly $3 million behind GOP incumbent Pete Ricketts, who has trailed in some polls. Mississippi got just under $1 million for GOP incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith. Trump's campaign schedule has also added deep-red stops: Kansas and South Carolina last week, Mississippi this week, and return trips to Kansas and South Carolina.

Still, Trump operatives tell Inner Loop they're encouraged that Democratic candidates haven't expanded their leads in several key Senate races lately. That worry has cropped up among some Senate Democratic leadership aides. Their biggest concern is Michigan, the best GOP pickup opportunity. Many of the most viable Democratic paths to a Senate majority run through the state, but Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has lingering issues with key voting blocs.

Black voters turned out in huge numbers to help Barack Obama carry Michigan in 2008 and 2012, and one Democratic aide says El-Sayed likely needs similar support to keep the seat blue. The trouble, the aide adds, is the decades-long animosity between Arab and Black communities in Michigan. That divide was strained further during the primary when supporters of challenger Haley Stevens ran ads featuring Obama praising her work during the financial crisis. Obama held a joint rally with El-Sayed in Detroit over the weekend to help rebuild part of the coalition; operatives aren't sure it will be enough.