Poll: Half of Israelis want settlements policy shifted to dodge more sanctions

Britain's September trade ban on goods from illegal settlements didn't decide Israel's election, but it left a mark on how Israelis weigh the cost of staying the course. A new survey by Israeli social research group aChord found no detectable net effect on votes — shifts ran both ways and cancelled out. Still, a plurality of Israelis say the government should rethink its settlements policy if tougher sanctions are coming.

Awareness of the UK move was high: 76% of those surveyed had heard of it, though 18% only caught the broad headline. Among those who knew about it, four-fifths understood the policy covered the West Bank rather than all of Israel. Three-quarters of Netanyahu bloc supporters said the UK sanctions and trade ban played no role at all in their vote.

Among voters for the opposition Change bloc backing Gadi Eisenkot, 71% said the government should adapt its settlements policy to head off an escalation of sanctions. Only 14% of Netanyahu bloc voters agreed, with most insisting the policy should continue "whatever the price." Half of all respondents — a plurality — backed adjusting West Bank settlement and construction policy to avoid sanctions escalation and international isolation, with support strongest among Arab party voters.

Relations with the west mattered to 60% of Change bloc voters when deciding their ballot, according to the poll, but that still ranked fifth out of six offered motives. Just 30% of Netanyahu bloc supporters said the same. Personal cost loomed larger than principle: only 36% of all respondents said settlement policy should continue if sanctions on banks financing construction led to higher interest rates or made it harder to move money or use credit cards abroad.

There's narrower appetite for punishing settlers themselves than for hitting the settlements economy. A majority, 52%, backed sanctions on individual violent settlers — but only if they target those acting violently. Seventy percent of Netanyahu bloc supporters opposed foreign sanctions in all circumstances. And 63% rejected the ban on importing settlement goods, while 26% either supported it or said they would if it were made clear the ban wouldn't touch goods from outside the settlements.

Hannah Weisfeld, director of the British-Jewish organisation Yachad, said the research shows Israelis recognise that without a policy shift on settlement enterprise, the international community will likely try to create incentives from the outside. She argued that makes action by the UK and other allies targeting the occupation all the more important, according to The Guardian.