Oil, wars, a split Fed: NYSE veteran says Wall Street's forces are stacking up

Peter Tuchman has spent decades on the NYSE floor, and even he says he can't rank the forces hammering stocks right now. The veteran trader listed them off in a video: crude above $100, the US standoff with Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war, a Federal Reserve that just split its own vote, and growing doubts about AI spending. His verdict — the market simply has too many moving parts to call which one strikes next.

The tape backs him up. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8% on Friday, and CME FedWatch put 72% odds on a December rate hike, which would make borrowing pricier for every listed company. Reports pinned Friday's selloff on climbing oil, soft tech earnings and those hike bets. The Nasdaq Composite finished October down about 5.2% — its roughest month since March 2025.

Oil is the loudest variable. Tuchman said crude jumped roughly $40 a barrel after the US and Israel attacked Iran, topping out near $120, and that the inflationary fallout from triple-digit barrels is massive. Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok and his team modeled it differently back in March: a lasting $100 oil shaves about 0.1 percentage point off US growth and lifts headline inflation by roughly 0.7 point. Apollo credits the modest growth hit to America being a net oil exporter and to better energy efficiency.

The Fed is the second front. On October 28, policymakers held the benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% while noting inflation remained elevated — but Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack broke ranks to vote for a quarter-point hike. Tuchman also flagged the handover from Jerome Powell to new Chair Kevin Warsh, describing a shift from a cutting cycle to a hiking cycle that caught everyone off guard.

Hedge funds add another wrinkle. Many are sitting on 10% to 15% gains this year, Tuchman said, and could lock in those returns by closing positions in November. Despite the pileup, he noted the S&P 500 was still less than 2% below its record high when he recorded.

Next up: the October jobs report lands Friday, handing the Fed fresh data before its December decision — the same meeting markets now lean toward a hike.