Netanyahu's West Bank Legacy Set to Outlast Israel's Election

Israelis head to the polls Tuesday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's 17-year grip on power hanging in the balance. But his footprint in the occupied West Bank—explosive settlement growth, the uprooting of tens of thousands of Palestinians, and the rise of armed settler extremists—will likely stick around long after the ballots are counted. Israelis may be split on Netanyahu himself, but they overwhelmingly support settlement expansion and reject a Palestinian state, so his opponents aren't promising a reversal.

Under Netanyahu, armed settlers now routinely defy the Israeli military, storm Palestinian villages, and seize land. Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of Gaza turbocharged that process. Netanyahu's government handed out thousands of firearms to settlers, and some extremists act like sheriffs—making arrests, summoning security forces, and driving Palestinian families from their homes. 'There shouldn't be any illusions,' Mairav Zonszein, senior Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the AP. 'At best, (a new government) would be able to slow down the extremely crazy acceleration.'

Take the Tubasi family. Settlers besieged their hilltop home in the West Bank village of Jalud for 19 days in July, cutting water and power and threatening to 'barbecue' them if they didn't leave, said Mahmoud Tubasi, 60, the family patriarch. An Israeli court ordered the military to bring them back, but troops aborted the mission when over 150 armed settlers scaled the walls and torched a car. The soldiers threw the Tubasis into an armored jeep and drove them away as settlers burned the place. They now live in relatives' houses below their gutted home, with settlers still roaming nearby. 'If they wanted to evacuate them, of course, 100%, they can do that,' Tubasi said. 'This is an army that fights in Lebanon, Gaza and in Iran—they can't control 150 or 200 settlers?'

Settlers have set up over 250 rustic camps across the territory, focusing on areas where Palestinian herding communities have lived for decades. Those outposts let settlers run Palestinians off vast rural areas by attacking shepherds and taking over water sources, all under the watch of Israeli troops. Since 2023, at least 127 herding communities have been forced off their land, according to data from the Israeli anti-settlement groups Kerem Navot and B'Tselem. Dror Etkes, a researcher with Kerem Navot, says the outposts have given settlers effective control of about a fifth of the West Bank. 'The story is over. There will be no massive dismantlement of settlement,' Etkes said.

The man most likely to replace Netanyahu is retired general Gadi Eisenkot, a centrist. He doesn't support a Palestinian state but is open to limited self-rule in the 40% of the West Bank now administered by the Palestinian Authority. He'd allow settlement growth in the other 60%, which is under direct Israeli military rule. He's also vowed to crack down on settler violence. His prospective coalition partners include left-wing politicians who oppose settlements and once backed a two-state solution—but they've agreed to shelve those positions to oust Netanyahu.