JPMorgan: Amazon's AI spending spree could top $475B a year by 2028

Amazon's AI tab is about to get a lot bigger. JPMorgan tech analyst Doug Anmuth projects the company will spend $395 billion on capital expenditures in 2027, a 77% jump from the prior year, according to a new note. He then sees that figure climbing another 20% in 2028, to $476 billion.

Anmuth isn't expecting the pace to ease up. In his note, he wrote that he does not expect capex growth to decelerate or slow next year. He credits management's clear view of demand for giving Amazon the confidence to underwrite more than 40% growth over the next two years and to invest even more aggressively in AI compute infrastructure.

The forecast fills in a blank Amazon left open. CEO Andy Jassy said last week the company would spend meaningfully more on capex in 2027 but declined to attach a number. Amazon has pegged its 2026 capex at $220 billion, making the out-year projections a sharp step up.

Those giant checks are already showing up in the financials. Amazon's free cash flow swung to an outflow of $42.4 billion for the trailing 12 months, driven largely by a $94.8 billion year-over-year increase in purchases of property and equipment — a jump the company ties primarily to AI investments. A year earlier, that same trailing 12-month measure was a $14.8 billion inflow.

Investors flinched after earnings, with the stock down more than 1% on Friday, but it recovered Monday. Amazon shares are now up 9% year to date, trailing the S&P 500's 11% gain. The next question for Wall Street: how long the market tolerates the spending before it demands a payoff.