Bloomberg strategist warns Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 on 20% US stock correction

Bitcoin could slide to $10,000 in the event of a 20% correction in US equities, according to Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. In an October 16 post, McGlone pointed to Bitcoin's pullback from a 2025 peak above $100,000, combined with rising government bond yields and tighter monetary policy, as signs of possible stress across risk assets. He stressed the target is contingent on a major stock selloff and not a confirmed prediction.

The scenario implies a decline of roughly 88% from Bitcoin's recent level near $82,000. McGlone's argument rests on Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity and swings in investor risk appetite, noting the asset has frequently moved ahead of speculative markets during expansions. His analysis compares 50-week moving averages for Bitcoin, the S&P 500, metals and copper futures, showing Bitcoin's average rolling over after a strong run while the others held relatively steady.

McGlone links that divergence to tighter financial conditions, citing Bitcoin's drop below $83,000 alongside climbing Treasury yields, a firmer dollar and liquidations in leveraged crypto positions. He argues that higher bond yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive, reducing demand for non-yielding holdings like Bitcoin. The relationship between real yields and Bitcoin performance has grown more visible as monetary conditions have tightened.

Not all analysts agree. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju challenged the projection, citing $58 billion in institutional Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate holdings of 1.3 million BTC. He said even heavy outflows from those positions would leave Bitcoin's onchain cost-basis floor near $30,000 rather than $10,000, and calculated that a $10,000 price would produce an MVRV ratio of 0.2 — far below the 0.6 seen at the lowest points in the cryptocurrency's history. Ju nevertheless conceded that historical data and cost-basis levels cannot conclusively rule out steep moves in a severe downturn.

Institutional flows remain volatile: Bitcoin funds recorded $729 million in ETF withdrawals over two recent sessions. The debate comes as the International Monetary Fund warns that AI-driven stock selloffs could spread through leveraged markets and expose new vulnerabilities. A simultaneous slump in stocks and crypto could intensify losses for investors with leveraged exposure to both. Separately, asset manager VanEck has suggested Bitcoin could reach $500,000 if it captures a larger share of gold's monetary value.

The core question is whether Bitcoin's recent weakness is an early warning for equities or whether it stabilizes on its own without the extreme decline McGlone's model describes. His framework leans on macroeconomic pressure and historical market behavior, while rival views emphasize institutional adoption and network valuation.