Talks Are Back, But Analyst Says Putin Wants Neutral Ukraine, Not Peace

The negotiating table is back. A trilateral meeting is expected in the second week of November, tucked between the November 3 US congressional elections and the APEC summit, where a Trump-Putin-Xi huddle is possible. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told RBC-Ukraine the restart is a positive development, but he says it's far too early to talk about the war ending.

Fesenko reads Russia's sudden willingness as a gift to Donald Trump. According to the analyst, Moscow is adapting its approach and sending positive signals, with Putin essentially telling Trump that his efforts to end the war are working and that he's ready to negotiate. Fesenko also cautioned that Trump tends to present what he wants to be true as if it were already reality.

The core issue, Fesenko says, isn't a ceasefire but the postwar security setup. Judging by statements from Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, Russia is focused on what roles Ukraine and Russia would play in that arrangement. Fesenko predicts Moscow will try to force Ukraine to formally accept neutral status, get the Americans to sign off, and push NATO to formally rule out Ukraine's future membership. Trump might agree, Fesenko says — Europe is another story.

So don't expect a sudden turn toward peace. Fesenko told RBC-Ukraine there's no reason to expect a dramatic change anytime soon, and that agreeing to negotiate doesn't mean agreeing to end the war or reach a ceasefire. In his view, the talks are less a peace path than another pressure platform: military strikes on Ukraine, pressure through Washington, and pressure at the negotiating table. For now, he calls them technical talks.