Saudi Arabia, UAE Lift Oil Exports as Hormuz Shipments Recover

Crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 12 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in the two weeks preceding the report, about 80% of pre-war levels, according to data from analytics firm Kpler cited by Reuters on October 8. Middle Eastern crude exports, including shipments through alternative routes, exceeded the pre-war average of 18 million bbl/d for much of the week ending October 3. The recovery marks a partial return to normal shipping patterns after months of disruption.

The UAE has exported an average of 3.3 million bbl/d of crude since June, broadly in line with pre-war levels, Kpler found. Its total production averaged approximately 4.2 million bbl/d over the same period, above its pre-war average of 3.9 million bbl/d. The figures suggest Abu Dhabi has been quicker than its neighbor to restore export volumes.

Saudi Arabia initially redirected large volumes of crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea after the war began, holding exports near 60% of pre-war levels through much of the conflict. That strategy was disrupted by attacks on the East-West pipeline in September and Houthi attacks affecting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, pushing the kingdom to route more shipments through Hormuz instead. Saudi crude exports subsequently averaged approximately 7.3 million bbl/d over the three weeks preceding the report, approaching pre-war levels.

Saudi production, however, is expected to average 7.4 million bbl/d in October, around 75% of pre-war levels, according to Kpler. The shortfall reflects reduced domestic refining capacity following strikes on processing facilities. That gap between export and production levels underscores how much of the kingdom's output capacity remains constrained.

In Asia, the contest for market share has shifted sharply. Saudi Arabia's share of Asian crude oil imports fell from 24% in February to a record low of 9% in September, but is expected to recover to approximately 14% in October, based on Reuters calculations using Kpler data. The UAE's share declined from 13% in February to 12% in October over the same period.