Oil Producers and Refiners Cash In as NZ Petrol Hits Record $3.60 a Litre

New Zealand drivers are paying record prices at the pump, with the average cost of 91 octane sitting at $3.60 a litre and diesel around $3.23, according to the price comparison app Gaspy. As those figures climb, attention has turned to who benefits most from the surge. Energy expert David Keat, a former refinery manager at Marsden Point, told RNZ's Morning Report that the biggest winners are those producing crude oil.

Keat said crude producers are collecting what he described as windfall profits, taking the largest share of the gains. Refinery owners come next, enjoying what he called extraordinary refining margins during the current period. He also gave the New Zealand government an honourable mention, noting it collects 15 percent GST on fuel, so its revenue rises alongside the pump price.

The companies most familiar to motorists are not the ones profiting most, according to Keat. He said firms like Mobil, BP and Shell account for only about 12 percent of global crude production. The dominant players, he said, are state-owned or state-influenced national oil companies in Russia, China and OPEC nations including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Nigeria and Guyana.

A Guardian investigation published in August found that eight of the world's largest oil companies amassed more than US$90 billion (NZ$159.8b) in profits over a three-month period as the US-Iran conflict pushed energy prices higher. Keat said the conflict appears to be in a stalemate, with both sides careful not to damage further oil infrastructure, warning that all bets would be off if that changed.

US President Donald Trump recently struck a diesel deal with Russia, which is set to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the US and global markets, with more promised later. Keat dismissed the arrangement as smoke and mirrors, saying the initial volume amounts to roughly 2 percent of a single day's global demand, and that even the 3 million tons discussed later would cover only about a quarter of one day.

Keat said it is difficult to predict where prices will head, suggesting the Iran situation could drag on through the midterms and potentially another year or two. He noted a mitigating factor: oil production outside the Gulf is slowly growing as the world adjusts. New Zealand, he said, no longer has its own refinery and is at the mercy of international markets, with the answer lying in shifting to non-hydrocarbon electricity sources, including electric vehicles.